The Office for National Statistics has reported a significant drop in UK inflation for the month of April. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in at 8.7% year-on-year, down from 10.1% in March. Although still higher than expected, this decline offers a positive outlook for the British economy. The decrease can be attributed to a retreat in energy prices and the diminishing impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which had previously affected the annual consumer price comparison.
The Office for National Statistics highlighted the contribution of electricity and gas prices to the fall in annual inflation, as last year’s price surge dropped out of the comparison. However, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices continued to rise, albeit at a slower rate compared to the previous month. Despite this moderation, the annual inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages remains among the highest seen in over 45 years.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1.2% in April, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.8%. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 7.8% in the 12 months to April 2023, down from 8.9% in March. Core CPI, which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices, rose by 6.8% compared to 6.2% in March, signaling potential concerns for the Bank of England.
Despite the persistent high inflation, the British economy has managed to defy expectations of a recession. The Bank of England recently raised interest rates for the 12th consecutive time, reaching 4.5%. Economists anticipate further rate hikes in the next meeting, as inflation remains more stubborn in the UK compared to other major economies. Governor Andrew Bailey has cautioned about the possibility of a wage price spiral, emphasizing the tight labor market.
While the falling headline rate of inflation is welcomed, there are still underlying challenges to address. British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt acknowledged that there is a long way to go before the battle against inflation is over, considering the pressures faced by households, such as high food and energy bills. Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, expressed optimism that the UK has turned a corner in the fight against inflation. He anticipates further declines over the summer, particularly due to the expected reduction in energy prices by U.K. regulator Ofgem.
The decline in April’s inflation rate provides the Monetary Policy Committee with an opportunity to keep interest rates on hold in the upcoming month. However, the risk of overtightening policies could exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis and squeeze businesses. Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, believes that while the decline is a step in the right direction, inflation still remains excessively high. He suggests that future declines may not be as sharp, especially if wage growth continues to increase.
In conclusion, the sharp drop in UK inflation during April indicates a positive shift in the economy. The retreat in energy prices and the waning impact of geopolitical events contributed to the decline. However, challenges remain, and the Bank of England may continue its interest rate hikes to address persistent inflationary pressures. The government and regulatory bodies are closely monitoring the situation and taking steps to alleviate the burden on households and businesses.