In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is likely to forgo an increase in its benchmark interest rate when it meets in June. This announcement provides clarity on the Fed’s next policy move following a series of mixed messages from various central bank officials throughout the week.
Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve’s 10 consecutive rate hikes, which have raised the key short-term rate from near zero to approximately 5.1% over the past 14 months, have reached a level that can effectively restrain borrowing, spending, and economic growth. The central bank believes that slower growth will eventually help cool inflation.
The view among several Fed officials is that the rate hikes have not yet fully impacted the economy and could take several more months to do so. Consequently, they argue that the Fed should take time to assess the consequences of its actions and avoid excessively tightening credit, which could potentially trigger a recession.
Powell’s remarks appear to endorse this approach, as he acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the lagged effects of the tightening measures implemented so far. He also suggested that the risks of doing too much versus doing too little are becoming more balanced. This shift in perspective reflects a departure from earlier this year when Powell expressed greater concern about the risk of raising rates too little to combat inflation.
Furthermore, Powell pointed out that the recent turmoil in the banking sector, characterized by the collapse of three large banks in the past two months, is likely to prompt banks to reduce lending, which could weaken the economy. As a result, he suggested that the policy rate may not need to rise as much as previously anticipated to achieve the Fed’s goals, although the extent of this adjustment remains uncertain.
Not all Fed officials share Powell’s concern about the impact of the banking sector upheaval on the broader economy. Some have argued that the failure of a few institutions, including Silicon Valley Bank, might have limited repercussions. They contend that lending in their respective districts has tightened primarily due to the rate hikes rather than the bank failures themselves.
Overall, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation has declined but remains significantly above the central bank’s 2% annual target. While inflation stood at 4.2% in March compared to a year earlier, core inflation (excluding food and energy costs) has seen less significant deceleration. These factors indicate that bringing inflation down will take time, according to Powell.
In conclusion, the Federal Reserve’s decision to likely pause interest rate hikes in June reflects an assessment of the current economic situation and the need for careful evaluation of the consequences of previous tightening measures. Concerns over the banking sector’s impact on lending and the potential for a recession also influenced this stance. As the Fed continues to monitor inflation and the overall economic outlook, the central bank aims to strike a balance between avoiding excessive tightening and addressing inflationary pressures.