A New York jury has reached a verdict in a civil case filed by E Jean Carroll against Donald Trump, concluding that it is more likely than not that Trump sexually abused and defamed her. While the ruling may not significantly impact Trump’s base within the Republican Party, it could have lasting consequences for his political and legal future.
The response from two Republican senators, John Thune of South Dakota and John Cornyn of Texas, underscores the potential risk this moment poses to Trump’s 2024 presidential aspirations. Thune noted that the cumulative effect of such verdicts could influence voters’ decisions, while Cornyn cautioned that winning a general election requires more than just appealing to one’s base.
Trump’s own behavior during the case may have contributed to the unfavorable outcome. His deposition testimony played a central role, with his remarks appearing demeaning and defensive. Trump attempted to dismiss his infamous Access Hollywood tape remarks about grabbing women by their genitals as reflections of celebrity power dynamics. Moreover, he described both Carroll and another woman who testified against him as not his type, even applying this description to the female attorney conducting the deposition. These statements undermined his credibility and cast doubt on his character.
The verdict may further alienate suburban voters, particularly women, who were critical of Trump’s brash political style during the 2020 presidential election. Trump’s defiant response on social media, labeling the verdict a disgrace and claiming ignorance of Carroll’s identity, shows his refusal to accept the jury’s decision. However, the ruling could provide ammunition for Republican opponents to challenge him in the upcoming election by exploiting his vulnerability and forcing defensive responses that lead to unforced errors.
This sexual abuse and defamation ruling adds to Trump’s legal troubles, which include an ongoing criminal indictment and potential future charges. While Trump has previously downplayed these concerns, the jury’s decision carries more weight as it represents a judgment rendered by everyday Americans. This unfavorable outcome may also have implications for other investigations, such as the inquiry into Trump’s involvement in the US Capitol attack and his handling of classified documents after leaving office, as well as Georgia’s investigations into his attempts to overturn the state’s 2020 election results.
Although it is unlikely that Trump will testify in these investigations, prosecutors may seek to use his previous statements and testimony against him, following the strategy effectively employed by Carroll’s lawyer. Trump’s legal challenges are mounting, and the recent verdict suggests that his previous dismissive attitude towards such proceedings may not bode well for his future legal battles.