The US government is proposing significant changes to auto emissions standards that would require automakers to substantially increase their production and sale of electric vehicles (EVs). By 2032, it is expected that EVs would comprise approximately two-thirds of all new cars sold in America, according to a proposal by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This shift is intended to expedite the adoption of EVs, which would have naturally reached similar market share levels sometime after 2035, as projected by industry analysts.
While these goals are considered achievable, they will require substantial investment from automakers. The proposal is still under review and subject to potential changes before being finalized. However, experts anticipate that the market for electric vehicles will experience significant transformations over the next decade, driven by advancements in battery technology, decreasing costs, and government incentives such as those outlined in the new Inflation Reduction Act.
Chris Harto, a policy analyst for transportation and energy at Consumer Reports, emphasizes that the EV landscape in nearly a decade will be vastly different from what is currently available. Although EVs are projected to account for two-thirds of new vehicle sales by 2032, gas-powered cars will still comprise 80% of the vehicles on the road. However, the overall car shopping experience will change significantly, with EVs becoming cost-competitive or even cheaper compared to their gas-powered counterparts.
Driving ranges of EVs will increase, fast charging infrastructure will improve and become more accessible, and operating costs will decrease substantially. Moody’s industry analyst Matthias Heck predicts that upcoming next-generation EV batteries will offer a 30% increase in driving range and recharge 30% faster. Combined with the expected growth of charging networks, these advancements will make EVs an attractive option for consumers seeking the best vehicle at an affordable price.
Moreover, the availability of EV models will expand significantly by 2032. Currently, there are EV equivalents for approximately 40% of gas vehicle models in the American market. According to Elizabeth Krear, VP of the electric vehicle practice at JD Power, this figure is expected to rise to 75% by 2026, with EV market share tripling to 27%. In California, where EV adoption is higher and more models are available, the two-thirds market share for EVs is projected to be reached even before 2032.
California’s influence plays a crucial role in shaping the US auto market, with the state planning to allow the sale of only fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2035. Corey Cantor, an analyst with Bloomberg NEF, highlights California’s impact, estimating that the state will achieve over 80% market share for plug-in vehicles by 2032. While reaching the two-thirds EV market share by 2032 is not guaranteed, it is considered manageable given these factors.
The increasing number of automakers entering the EV market will also contribute to its growth. Many car buyers exhibit strong brand loyalty, and the introduction of EV models by established manufacturers will help ease the transition. Toyota, for example, currently offers one electric model in the US market but has plans for additional EVs. Honda, another brand with a loyal following, is preparing to manufacture EV models in Ohio and expects to launch its first EV next year. General Motors, committed to offering only electric passenger vehicles by 2035, will introduce EV models across various market segments and price points in the coming years.