Thai voters have defied expectations and delivered a stunning verdict in favor of the opposition party, Move Forward, which advocates radical reform of the country’s institutions. Early election results reveal that Move Forward has surpassed all predictions, securing 151 seats out of 500 in the lower house, surpassing the frontrunner, Pheu Thai, led by the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. This unexpected outcome signifies a seismic political shift and a clear repudiation of the two military-aligned parties currently in the government, including Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who came to power through a coup in 2014. The governing coalition managed to secure only 15% of the seats.
Move Forward’s 42-year-old leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, expressed his satisfaction with the results, stating, “We didn’t leave any stones unturned… Now, it’s a new day.” Pheu Thai, the second-largest party, has announced its agreement to join Move Forward and four smaller opposition parties, forming a coalition that holds over 60% of the seats in the new parliament.
However, despite this majority, Move Forward and its coalition partners may face challenges from the unelected senate, consisting of 250 members appointed by Prime Minister Prayuth, who are allowed to participate in the parliamentary vote for the next administration. It is expected that the senate, which is aligned with the military, will object to Move Forward’s progressive agenda, particularly their pledge to amend the controversial lese majeste law.
Thais are concerned that the military and its supporters might attempt to obstruct the winning parties from assuming office, similar to the disqualification of Move Forward’s predecessor, Future Forward, on technical grounds in 2020. Although a military coup is unlikely, the possibility of court rulings impeding Move Forward cannot be ruled out.
Additionally, the ability of Move Forward and Pheu Thai to work together effectively remains uncertain. While their relationship in the previous parliament was occasionally contentious, Pita Limjaroenrat’s leadership skills will be tested in the complex task of forging and maintaining a coalition.
Nevertheless, the election outcome has undeniably transformed Thailand’s political landscape. The majority of votes reflect a desire to break free from the “Prayuth regime” and a yearning for change. The success of Move Forward demonstrates widespread support for its demand for reform, surpassing initial expectations. The party’s victory has been celebrated on Thai social media, with Move Forward supporters hailing it as a “wind of change” and the “dawn of a new era.”
Move Forward’s triumph is remarkable considering its calls for comprehensive changes to Thailand’s bureaucracy, economy, military’s role, and even the laws safeguarding the monarchy. These were also the key issues that sparked the student-led protest movement in 2020, with several of Move Forward’s candidates emerging as leaders of the movement. The party attracted many young and passionate voters who played a significant role in shaping the election outcome.
Although Move Forward faced resource limitations compared to its rivals, its focused vision, principled positions, and reliance on social media and grassroots campaigning resonated with the electorate. The party’s refusal to form a coalition with parties associated with the 2014 military coup further solidified its reformist stance.
As the dust settles, the immediate question remains whether the two reformist parties will be permitted to form a government despite their mandate for change. Pita Limjaroenrat expressed optimism, believing it would be unlikely for anyone to challenge or undermine the election results or establish a minority government given the consensus that emerged.